Estimates
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-07-29.
S&P's consensus tape on Yatsen is thin and moving the wrong way on profits: FY27 normalized EPS has been cut from 4.54 to 3.01 over six months while the revenue line barely moves, a margin-driven downgrade rather than a demand one. The forward model still pencils a turn to profitability, with EBITDA and net income swinging positive by FY27, but it rests on one to two analysts per line and a single price target. History shows the company clears revenue consensus consistently while normalized EPS prints swing violently around it.
Coverage is thin: one to two analysts per line
No metric in the feed is covered by three or more analysts, so the disagreement view is unavailable and outer-year figures rest on a single estimate. Read every forward number as one or two models, not a settled consensus.
FY27 normalized EPS cut ~20% in 90 days while revenue holds flat
The downgrade is concentrated in profitability, not the top line — consensus is repricing margins, not demand.
Currency: CNY · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Point-in-time consensus; Δ90d is Now versus 90d.
| Metric | FY | 180d | 90d | 30d | Now | Δ90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (normalized) | FY2027 | CNY 4.54 | CNY 3.77 | CNY 3.01 | CNY 3.01 | -20.2% |
| Revenue | FY2027 | CNY 5.69bn | CNY 5.71bn | CNY 5.73bn | CNY 5.73bn | +0.4% |
Consensus models a profit turn by FY27 as revenue growth decelerates to ~9%
FY25 blends actuals with estimates, and the swing to positive EBITDA and net income is a forecast, not a result. Revenue growth cools from roughly 22% into FY26 to about 9% into FY27.
Currency: CNY · Scale: money in millions, absolute · YoY uses the prior fiscal year from the feed; analyst count and range use the first displayed period.
| Metric | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | CNY 4.25bn | CNY 5.24bn | CNY 5.73bn | — | 2 | CNY 4.16bn / CNY 4.33bn |
| EBITDA | CNY 10.00m | CNY 80.00m | CNY 282.00m | — | 1 | CNY 10.00m / CNY 10.00m |
| Net income (normalized) | CNY 107.00m | CNY 147.00m | CNY 282.00m | — | — | — |
| EPS (normalized) | CNY 1.03 | CNY 1.56 | CNY 3.01 | — | 2 | CNY 0.95 / CNY 1.11 |
Revenue beats every recent print; normalized EPS swings wildly around it
Recent revenue surprises are all positive; normalized EPS surprises range from +116% to -367%, so the EPS line carries little predictive weight. The last quarter shown has no captured consensus.
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 3 consecutive beats; EPS (normalized): 2 consecutive misses.
Currency: CNY · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus | Actual | Surprise | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | -CNY 0.55 | -CNY 0.78 | -41.8% | Miss |
| Q4 FY2023 | EPS (normalized) | -CNY 0.80 | -CNY 1.70 | -112.5% | Miss |
| Q3 FY2023 | EPS (normalized) | -CNY 0.30 | -CNY 0.30 | +0.0% | Met |
| Q2 FY2023 | EPS (normalized) | CNY 0.15 | -CNY 0.40 | -366.7% | Miss |
| Q1 FY2023 | Revenue | CNY 668.00m | CNY 765.40m | +14.6% | Beat |
| Q1 FY2023 | EPS (normalized) | -CNY 0.72 | -CNY 0.25 | +65.5% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2022 | Revenue | CNY 993.00m | CNY 1.01bn | +1.3% | Beat |
| Q4 FY2022 | EPS (normalized) | -CNY 1.93 | CNY 0.30 | +115.6% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2022 | Revenue | CNY 806.00m | CNY 857.90m | +6.4% | Beat |
| Q3 FY2022 | EPS (normalized) | -CNY 1.43 | -CNY 1.10 | +22.8% | Beat |
A single analyst covers the tape: one Buy, 27.12 target
One analyst, one Buy, one 27.12 target — treat street signals here as anecdote, not consensus.
Currency: CNY · Scale: money in millions, absolute · Analyst counts shown explicitly.
| Street view | Reading | Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Recommendation mix | Buy 1, Outperform 0, Hold 0, Underperform 0, Sell 0 | 1 |
| Consensus score | 1.00 | 1 |
| Target price | mean CNY 27.12; median CNY 27.12; high CNY 27.12; low CNY 27.12 | 1 |