Models
Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 1 brokers · 201 line items · freshest revision 2024-04-12.
One broker, revised April 2024 — read as a single stale model, not consensus
Every figure below comes from one analyst's model whose newest revision is April 2024, so nothing here reflects recent trading. There are no company-specific metrics, segment splits or unit KPIs — only a standardized P&L — and with a single broker there is no dispersion to represent disagreement. Treat the whole tab as one dated opinion.
The modeled story is operating leverage, not gross margin: op margin steps from ~4% to ~6%
Revenue compounds in the high-single to low-double digits while selling & marketing rises more slowly, lifting operating margin from 4.0% in FY-2025 to about 6% thereafter. The gross margin does no work — it is held constant — so the entire margin story is spend discipline below the gross line.
| Line | FY-2025A | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top line | — | — | — |
| Total revenue | CN¥4.14bn | — | 1 |
| Total revenue, YoY(%) | 11.0% | — | 1 |
| Profitability | — | — | — |
| Selling & marketing expense | CN¥2.11bn | — | 1 |
| Operating income/(loss) | CN¥163.92m | — | 1 |
| Operating margin(%) | 4.0% | — | 1 |
| EBITDA | CN¥574.14m | — | 1 |
| EBITDA margin(%) | 13.9% | — | 1 |
Earnings and cash inflect together: FCF crosses to positive and net cash keeps building
Free cash flow moves from slightly negative in FY-2025 to positive from FY-2026, and the company sits in a net-cash position that deepens each year. EPS roughly doubles over the window, though off the same single, dated model.
| Line | FY-2025A | YoY | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | — | — | — |
| EPS Diluted, Applicable to common stockholders(CNY) | CN¥1.48 | — | 1 |
| Net income/(loss), Applicable to common stockholders | CN¥162.58m | — | 1 |
| Cash | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow (FCF) | CN¥-25.53m | — | 1 |
| FCF margin(%) | -0.6% | — | 1 |
| Net cash flows provided by/(used in) operating activities | CN¥178.51m | — | 1 |
| Cash & cash equivalents | CN¥568.23m | — | 1 |
| Net debt | CN¥-1.43bn | — | 1 |
The flat 74.4% gross margin is an assumption, not a forecast
Gross margin is held at exactly 74.4% in FY-2025 through FY-2028. For a Chinese beauty name where brand mix and channel economics are the real debate, holding the gross line constant is a modeling shortcut — it means every margin call in this model lives in S&M and G&A, not in the product itself.
Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.